In a way, the river represents the least complicated strategy in poker. With no more cards to come, hand values are set in stone. There are no outs to think about, no implied odds or future streets, just this moment.

There’s only two motivations for betting the river. Either you are looking to extract value from a weaker hand, or you’re looking to get a stronger hand to fold by bluffing.

It’s only the fact that the pot is at its most inflated that the river seems intense. Making a big mistake can be costly, while getting paid off will give you a huge boost to your stack.

Here are five questions to ask before betting the river.

1 – How strong is my hand?

Before you think about whether to value bet or bluff, first you need to weigh up the strength of your hand relative to the board and your opponent’s range.

Do you have the nuts or close to it? In this case, you’ll be looking to maximize value and play for stacks. Do you have showdown value if you check back, perhaps with a medium strength hand that isn’t really worth betting?

If you have little showdown value, either because a draw missed or your hand is too weak, is it worth betting as a bluff?

Look at all of the information you have gathered during the hand, the betting action preflop and on previous streets. Try to decipher how strong your hand is so that you know how best to proceed.

2 – Will my opponent call with worse hands?

When deciding whether to bet the river for value, the main question to ask is will your opponent call with worse hands? If there are no or very few hands that they can call with that you beat, it’s simply not worth betting.

If you’re in position and your opponent checks to you, then you need to win more than 50 percent of the time in order to make a river bet profitable (a little more to account for the times you are check-raised).

This is true no matter what the size of your river bet, because when you’re in position you can simply check behind to showdown to play for the current pot.

Given that you’ll have showdown value with medium hands that you check back, you’ll often value bet with a polarized range that includes strong hands and bluffs when in position.

Out of position, the situation is different because checking doesn’t close the action and you could still face a bet from your opponent. When out of position, the correct strategy is to value bet thinner with a smaller sizing.

These “blocking bets” can be paid by weaker hands, while preventing opponents from betting stronger hands with a bigger sizing.

3 – Can I get my opponent to fold a better hand?

If you’re thinking about bluffing on the river, then the main question to ask is can you get an opponent to fold better hands often enough to make it profitable? Consider their range based on the action so far to work out the hands they should be folding on the river.

Assuming that checking won’t win you the pot, bet sizing matters when bluffing the river in terms of the frequency that your opponent needs to fold.

If you make a pot sized bet, they need to fold at least 50 percent of the time. For a half pot bet, they need to fold at least 33 percent of the time to make it profitable.

Along with missed draws and very weak hands, experienced players know how to turn mediocre hands into bluffs. Especially if they believe they are beaten on the river. This has to be balanced by any showdown value that a hand might have.

4 – How much should I bet?

Before making a bet, you’ll need to get the sizing right. The river is the final opportunity to bet and so you are highly incentivised to bet big with very strong hands to get paid the maximum. In position, your range will often be polarized and so you’ll bet big with both value hands and bluffs.

The more polarized your range, the bigger you can bet, although you still need to be able to balance this by viably betting that amount with your bluffs. Often, betting close to pot or even overbetting the pot is normal in position on the river.

If you’re betting for thin value, then bet sizing should be smaller to allow opponents to call with weaker hands. The problem with doing this in position is you open yourself up to being check-raised, which instantly wrecks the value of your medium hands.

As such, betting thin for value is more profitable out of position. Solvers even recommend betting a very wide range for around 10 – 20 percent of the pot when out of position.

5 – How will I react to a check-raise?

If your river bet is a shove all-in, then you don’t have to worry about a check-raise. With smaller bets, or even large bets that leave room for your opponent’s fold equity if they raise, you need a plan for how you’ll react if your bet is raised.

This is often player dependant. Especially at the lower stakes, as many opponents will simply not be capable of making river check-raise bluffs that put you to the test. In this case, you can bet more liberally and with a thinner value range.

When opponents are capable of check-raising the river with a polarized range, you have less incentive to bet your middle strength hands in position. You can simply check to showdown. Instead, you want to make your own range polarized to avoid too many problems.

This makes it relatively simple to respond to a check-raise. You can call with your strongest hands and easily fold your bluffs.